NHL Wed, Oct 28 Final

Flyers @ Capitals

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	Game shown	Real
PHI Flyers	2	2
WSH Capitals	4	5

PHI 39% of runs won 61% WSH

✓ The sim had it. The Capitals won 61% of the runs, and won the real game, WSH by 3.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · WSH by 2

Real · WSH by 3

← PHI by 6+ 0 WSH by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Flyers
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Trevor Zegras	31%	69%	0	1
Matvei Michkov	31%	46%	1	0
Tyson Foerster	27%	36%	0	0
Travis Sanheim	20%	47%	0	0
Jamie Drysdale	19%	38%	0	0
Christian Dvorak	17%	41%	0	0
Sean Couturier	11%	35%	1	0
Oliver Bonk	7%	46%	0	0
Denver Barkey	7%	43%	0	1
Cam York	7%	8%	0	0
Nick Seeler	6%	31%	0	1
David Jiricek	6%	17%	–	–

Capitals
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Alex Tuch	36%	50%	2	0
Jakob Chychrun	31%	65%	0	1
Ryan Leonard	30%	56%	0	0
Dylan Strome	29%	64%	0	3
Boone Jenner	27%	35%	0	0
Tom Wilson	25%	48%	0	0
Cole Hutson	24%	47%	0	0
Aliaksei Protas	12%	30%	1	0
Pierre-Luc Dubois	11%	40%	0	2
Timothy Liljegren	7%	9%	0	0
Martin Fehervary	4%	25%	0	0
Matt Roy	3%	4%	0	1

What a Capitals win looks like

One real run out of the 100,000: a Capitals win, with the final drawn as often as it came up in the runs. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. PHI 2, WSH 4. 4.3% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Flyers
Player	G	A	Shots
Noel Acciari	1	0	1
Cole Knuble	1	0	1
Christian Dvorak	0	1	4
Trevor Zegras	0	1	3
Porter Martone	0	1	1
Matvei Michkov	0	0	5
Tyson Foerster	0	0	3
Alex Bump	0	0	3

Capitals
Player	G	A	Shots
Jakob Chychrun	2	0	4
Alex Ovechkin	0	2	1
Tom Wilson	1	0	3
Alex Tuch	1	0	2
Cole Hutson	0	1	2
Dylan Strome	0	1	1
Justin Sourdif	0	1	1
Ryan Leonard	0	1	1
Martin Fehervary	0	1	0

Goalies

Flyers
Player	Shots against	Saves
Dan Vladar	19	15

Capitals
Player	Shots against	Saves
Logan Thompson	29	27

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Dan Vladar / Logan Thompson, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.