NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

Rams @ Raiders

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
LAR Rams	27	35
LV Raiders	21	21

LAR 67% of runs won 33% LV

✓ The sim had it. The Rams won 67% of the runs, and won the real game, LAR by 14.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · LAR by 6

Real · LAR by 14

← LAR by 35+ 0 LV by 35+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0400 SimReal

Matthew Stafford LAR

279 195

Kirk Cousins LV

234 295

Rushing yards

0150 SimReal

Kyren Williams LAR

66 99

Blake Corum LAR

36 93

About 6.4% of runs went that high.

Ashton Jeanty LV

65 15

About 5.1% of runs went that low.

Mike Washington Jr. LV

20 27

Receiving yards

0150 SimReal

Puka Nacua LAR

75 68

Tyler Higbee LAR

43 14

Konata Mumpfield LAR

21 15

Colby Parkinson LAR

16 48

Brock Bowers LV

46 73

Tre Tucker LV

36 103

About 4.9% of runs went that high.

Michael Mayer LV

32 32

Cody White LV

12 4

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. LAR 27, LV 21.

Rams
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Matthew Stafford QB	19/31 · 287	3 · 18		3
Kyren Williams RB		14 · 67	7 · 45
Puka Nacua WR		1 · 3	4 · 65
Davis Allen TE			2 · 66	1
Blake Corum RB		10 · 37	1 · 18
Tyler Higbee TE			2 · 40
Jordan Whittington WR			1 · 28
Konata Mumpfield WR			1 · 17	1
Colby Parkinson TE			1 · 8

Raiders
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Kirk Cousins QB	26/37 · 256	2 · 6		2
Ashton Jeanty RB		13 · 65	7 · 40	1
Jalen Nailor WR			4 · 65	2
Mike Washington Jr. RB		5 · 35	1 · 11
Brock Bowers TE			3 · 45
Tre Tucker WR		1 · 3	2 · 38
Michael Mayer TE			4 · 26
Cody White WR			2 · 15
Malik Benson WR			2 · 12
Ian Thomas TE			1 · 4
Connor Heyward FB		1 · 4

What went in

Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
Out: none listed · none listed. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok