NBA Sun, Oct 25 Final

Raptors @ Timberwolves

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
TOR Raptors	116	94
MIN Timberwolves	118	117

TOR 48% of runs won 52% MIN

✓ The sim had it. The Timberwolves won 52% of the runs, and won the real game, MIN by 23.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · MIN by 2

Real · MIN by 23

← TOR by 30+ 0 MIN by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 16 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Kawhi Leonard TOR

21 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

RJ Barrett TOR

20 20

Scottie Barnes TOR

17 0

3 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Immanuel Quickley TOR

15 19

Jakob Poeltl TOR

11 0

37 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Collin Murray-Boyles TOR

10 3

522 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Malachi Smith TOR

8 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Ja'Kobe Walter TOR

7 22

40 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Jamal Shead TOR

6 4

Anthony Edwards MIN

25 26

LaMelo Ball MIN

18 15

Ayo Dosunmu MIN

15 9

Jaden McDaniels MIN

14 14

Jonathan Kuminga MIN

11 13

Rudy Gobert MIN

10 8

Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN

9 15

Cody Williams MIN

7 0

259 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Trey Lyles MIN

6 3

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. TOR 116, MIN 118.

Raptors
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Scottie Barnes	19	11	3	9-14	0-2
RJ Barrett	15	6	2	7-11	1-2
Immanuel Quickley	23	6	4	7-14	6-8
Kawhi Leonard	21	5	3	7-17	1-3
Jakob Poeltl	5	5	1	2-5	0-0
Jamal Shead	8	1	6	2-8	2-4
Ja'Kobe Walter	11	2	1	2-6	2-5
Collin Murray-Boyles	8	6	2	2-5	0-1
Malachi Smith	6	5	3	2-7	0-2

Timberwolves
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Anthony Edwards	23	8	3	6-13	3-5
Jaden McDaniels	15	3	2	7-17	1-4
Rudy Gobert	16	6	1	6-6	0-0
LaMelo Ball	15	5	9	4-9	2-6
Ayo Dosunmu	14	8	3	5-15	1-8
Jonathan Kuminga	12	3	0	4-8	2-2
Cody Williams	8	3	3	4-8	0-3
Trey Lyles	4	5	0	2-3	0-1
Terrence Shannon Jr.	11	3	3	3-6	1-3

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team; 2024-25 too for anyone with under 20 games) + this season so far, ESPN.
Out: Bittle · DiVincenzo.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

Get the sims by email.