NBA Fri, Oct 23 Final

Rockets @ Spurs

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
HOU Rockets	112	114
SAS Spurs	118	110

HOU 35% of runs won 65% SAS

✗ A miss. The Spurs won 65% of the runs, but the Rockets won the real game, HOU by 4. HOU won by that much or more in 28% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · SAS by 6

Real · HOU by 4

← HOU by 30+ 0 SAS by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 7 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

035 SimReal

Kevin Durant HOU

20 20

Alperen Sengun HOU

18 29

577 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Amen Thompson HOU

16 20

Jabari Smith Jr. HOU

14 7

Reed Sheppard HOU

10 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Marcus Smart HOU

9 5

Tari Eason HOU

9 12

Fred VanVleet HOU

7 14

958 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Steven Adams HOU

6 4

Victor Wembanyama SAS

20 25

De'Aaron Fox SAS

17 19

Stephon Castle SAS

15 15

Devin Vassell SAS

14 10

Dylan Harper SAS

13 20

Julian Champagnie SAS

11 6

Keldon Johnson SAS

11 8

Harrison Barnes SAS

9 0

176 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Luke Kornet SAS

6 7

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. HOU 112, SAS 118.

Rockets
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Amen Thompson	16	8	7	5-12	0-0
Jabari Smith Jr.	16	6	0	5-10	1-4
Kevin Durant	21	6	4	8-13	1-3
Alperen Sengun	15	7	7	5-12	1-1
Marcus Smart	11	3	2	4-8	1-4
Reed Sheppard	9	2	1	3-11	3-8
Tari Eason	3	4	1	1-8	1-6
Steven Adams	9	15	3	4-7	0-0
Fred VanVleet	12	5	1	5-10	2-5

Spurs
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Devin Vassell	16	3	4	7-10	2-4
De'Aaron Fox	19	4	3	8-17	1-4
Stephon Castle	9	4	4	4-12	1-4
Victor Wembanyama	18	11	3	6-18	1-8
Julian Champagnie	11	5	0	4-4	2-2
Dylan Harper	30	6	2	12-16	5-8
Keldon Johnson	5	5	2	2-5	0-2
Harrison Barnes	5	3	2	2-8	1-6
Luke Kornet	5	1	2	2-4	0-0

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season so far, ESPN.
Out: Harris, Quaintance. Day-to-day and playing in these runs: Fox, K. Johnson, Adams, Sheppard.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

Get the sims by email.