Spurs @ Jazz
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Game shown | Real · OT |
|---|---|---|
| SAS Spurs | 126 | 117 |
| UTA Jazz | 114 | 111 |
✓ The sim had it. The Spurs won 75% of the runs, and won the real game, SAS by 6.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 5 of 16 landed within 3 points of the sim.
526 of 10,000 runs went that high.
973 of 10,000 runs went that high.
552 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
981 of 10,000 runs went that high.
489 of 10,000 runs went that low.
What a Spurs win looks like
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Spurs win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. SAS 126, UTA 114. Spurs by exactly 12 in 2.3% of runs.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell | 14 | 7 | 5 | 5-13 | 2-6 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 22 | 11 | 1 | 9-15 | 2-4 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Stephon Castle | 20 | 4 | 7 | 6-9 | 2-3 |
| Julian Champagnie | 12 | 6 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-7 |
| Dylan Harper | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7-11 | 2-3 |
| Keldon Johnson | 16 | 7 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-4 |
| Luke Kornet | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Harrison Barnes | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 22 | 3 | 8 | 8-17 | 2-6 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 22 | 9 | 0 | 8-20 | 2-7 |
| Ace Bailey | 11 | 8 | 4 | 5-12 | 1-6 |
| Darryn Peterson | 8 | 4 | 6 | 3-11 | 0-2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 17 | 6 | 3 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Collier | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5-6 | 2-2 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 13 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-5 |
| Josh Okogie | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Harris, Quaintance · Alexander, Hinson, Jackson, Nurkic.
- Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Hayes, Markkanen.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
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