Kings @ Pelicans
Simulated 10,000 times
↻ Re-run: no Murray, no Poole. The re-run is the sim that was posted, and the one scored.
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| SAC Kings | 106 | 120 |
| NOP Pelicans | 113 | 132 |
✓ The sim had it. The Pelicans won 67% of the runs, and won the real game, NOP by 12.
Wild card · 1 in 10 runs
Zach LaVine: 30+ points
Didn’t hit. Real: 21 points.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 6 of 15 landed within 3 points of the sim.
475 of 10,000 runs went that low.
45 of 10,000 runs went that high.
262 of 10,000 runs went that high.
519 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
417 of 10,000 runs went that low.
478 of 10,000 runs went that low.
633 of 10,000 runs went that high.
575 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. SAC 106, NOP 113.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | 17 | 10 | 9 | 6-9 | 1-2 |
| Zach LaVine | 22 | 2 | 4 | 7-13 | 4-8 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 10 | 13 | 4 | 5-11 | 0-0 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 19 | 2 | 2 | 7-12 | 2-5 |
| Leaky Black | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Nique Clifford | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Emanuel Sharp | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 18 | 12 | 3 | 7-17 | 2-9 |
| Zion Williamson | 25 | 7 | 6 | 10-18 | 0-1 |
| Saddiq Bey | 21 | 7 | 1 | 7-12 | 2-2 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3-13 | 0-2 |
| Derik Queen | 10 | 7 | 4 | 4-10 | 0-2 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4-12 | 0-3 |
| Herbert Jones | 13 | 6 | 3 | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| Julian Reese | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bryce McGowens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
What went in
- Without Murray and Poole, the other Pelicans take their shots at their own rates; the sim can't see how much harder those shots get.
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Cardwell, Murray, Raynaud, Simmons · Missi, Murray, Poole.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
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