NBA Sat, Oct 24 Final

Spurs @ Mavericks

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
SA Spurs	117	122
DAL Mavericks	114	106

SA 57% of runs won 43% DAL

✓ The sim had it. The Spurs won 57% of the runs, and won the real game, SA by 16.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · SA by 3

Real · SA by 16

← SA by 30+ 0 DAL by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 7 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Victor Wembanyama SA

20 23

De'Aaron Fox SA

17 19

Stephon Castle SA

17 19

Devin Vassell SA

12 11

Dylan Harper SA

12 22

411 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Julian Champagnie SA

11 12

Keldon Johnson SA

11 7

Harrison Barnes SA

7 0

372 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Luke Kornet SA

6 0

283 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Kyrie Irving DAL

23 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

P.J. Washington DAL

16 12

Naji Marshall DAL

16 10

Max Christie DAL

14 5

440 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Zaccharie Risacher DAL

12 11

Daniel Gafford DAL

9 12

Walter Clayton Jr. DAL

7 3

Marcus Sasser DAL

6 12

Sergio de Larrea DAL

6 21

8 of 10,000 runs went that high.

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. SA 117, DAL 114.

Spurs
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Devin Vassell	11	2	3	5-15	1-6
De'Aaron Fox	19	7	8	8-14	2-4
Stephon Castle	18	7	4	6-12	2-5
Victor Wembanyama	19	8	1	7-17	2-6
Julian Champagnie	13	10	1	5-9	2-4
Dylan Harper	9	4	5	3-7	0-0
Keldon Johnson	16	9	0	6-8	0-0
Harrison Barnes	8	1	3	2-8	2-7
Luke Kornet	4	8	2	2-4	0-0

Mavericks
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Kyrie Irving	22	7	5	10-19	2-4
P.J. Washington	13	14	3	3-14	1-9
Max Christie	15	3	6	6-14	2-7
Naji Marshall	20	4	3	7-14	1-2
Zaccharie Risacher	14	2	0	6-9	2-4
Daniel Gafford	9	5	1	4-8	0-0
Walter Clayton Jr.	10	3	3	3-7	2-3
Marcus Sasser	6	1	5	2-3	1-2
Sergio de Larrea	5	3	3	2-3	1-2

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team; 2024-25 too for anyone with under 20 games) + this season so far, ESPN.
Out: Harris, Quaintance · Flagg, Lively, Aldama, Martin, Howard, Biberovic. Irving, Christie, Risacher (day-to-day) play.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

Get the sims by email.