Suns @ Thunder
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| PHX Suns | 108 | 114 |
| OKC Thunder | 119 | 125 |
✓ The sim had it. The Thunder won 75% of the runs, and won the real game, OKC by 11.
Every run’s final margin
Typical · OKC by 11
Real · OKC by 11
← PHX by 30+ 0 OKC by 30+ →
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 6 of 15 landed within 3 points of the sim.
050 SimReal
Devin Booker PHX
22 3
None of 10,000 runs went that low.
Dillon Brooks PHX
18 19
Jalen Green PHX
16 20
Miles Bridges PHX
13 17
Collin Gillespie PHX
11 9
Jordan Goodwin PHX
8 12
Luke Kennard PHX
7 9
Oso Ighodaro PHX
6 DNP
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Ryan Dunn PHX
6 6
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
32 26
Ajay Mitchell OKC
16 30
195 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Chet Holmgren OKC
16 DNP
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10 15
Jared McCain OKC
10 18
765 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Cason Wallace OKC
9 DNP
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Alex Caruso OKC
9 9
Josh Dix OKC
8 0
275 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Aday Mara OKC
8 11
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. PHX 108, OKC 119.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 19 | 8 | 4 | 5-14 | 1-1 |
| Dillon Brooks | 18 | 4 | 1 | 7-15 | 0-4 |
| Miles Bridges | 22 | 6 | 0 | 6-10 | 2-3 |
| Jalen Green | 18 | 4 | 2 | 7-15 | 0-4 |
| Collin Gillespie | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-8 | 2-7 |
| Luke Kennard | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| Ryan Dunn | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 32 | 3 | 7 | 11-16 | 2-3 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 15 | 9 | 4 | 5-11 | 0-2 |
| Chet Holmgren | 20 | 13 | 3 | 7-12 | 2-4 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 11 | 7 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-1 |
| Cason Wallace | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Alex Caruso | 16 | 3 | 1 | 5-11 | 5-10 |
| Josh Dix | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Jared McCain | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Aday Mara | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team; 2024-25 too for anyone with under 20 games) + this season so far, ESPN.
- Out: M. Williams · J. Williams, Topic, Sorber, Oweh. Ighodaro, Wallace, Jaylin Williams (day-to-day) play.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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