NHL Wed, Oct 28 Final

Maple Leafs @ Kraken

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	Game shown	Real
TOR Maple Leafs	4	4
SEA Kraken	2	5

TOR 55% of runs won 45% SEA

✗ A miss. The Maple Leafs won 55% of the runs, but the Kraken won the real game, SEA by 1. SEA won by that much or more in 45% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · TOR by 2

Real · SEA by 1

← TOR by 6+ 0 SEA by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Maple Leafs
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
William Nylander	42%	73%	0	0
Auston Matthews	42%	74%	1	2
Kirill Marchenko	35%	66%	–	–
Jack Roslovic	30%	59%	1	1
Easton Cowan	26%	54%	0	1
Darren Raddysh	25%	56%	0	2
Morgan Rielly	13%	57%	0	0
Colton Sissons	12%	29%	0	0
Nick Paul	12%	30%	0	0
Troy Stecher	12%	23%	0	1
Jake McCabe	10%	22%	0	0
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	7%	15%	0	0

Kraken
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Jordan Eberle	31%	54%	0	1
Bobby McMann	29%	40%	0	0
Berkly Catton	25%	54%	1	0
Mackie Samoskevich	24%	30%	0	2
Vince Dunn	23%	54%	0	1
Brandon Montour	21%	56%	1	0
Frederick Gaudreau	21%	32%	0	1
Matty Beniers	17%	31%	0	2
Ryker Evans	12%	36%	1	0
Chandler Stephenson	10%	55%	1	1
Adam Larsson	10%	24%	0	0
Cale Fleury	4%	11%	0	0

What a Maple Leafs win looks like

One real run out of the 100,000: a Maple Leafs win, with the final drawn as often as it came up in the runs. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. TOR 4, SEA 2. 3.7% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Maple Leafs
Player	G	A	Shots
William Nylander	2	0	5
Darren Raddysh	1	1	4
Gavin McKenna	0	2	2
Brandon Duhaime	0	2	0
Troy Stecher	1	0	1
Jack Roslovic	0	1	4
Easton Cowan	0	1	1
Auston Matthews	0	0	4

Kraken
Player	G	A	Shots
Bobby McMann	1	0	4
Matty Beniers	1	0	2
Brandon Montour	0	1	4
Chandler Stephenson	0	1	0
Joshua Mahura	0	1	0
Jordan Eberle	0	0	6
Frederick Gaudreau	0	0	4
Ryan Winterton	0	0	3

Goalies

Maple Leafs
Player	Shots against	Saves
Sergei Bobrovsky	30	28

Kraken
Player	Shots against	Saves
Philipp Grubauer	29	25

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Sergei Bobrovsky / Philipp Grubauer, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.