NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Mammoth @ Penguins

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real · OT
UTA Mammoth	5	4
PIT Penguins	2	3

UTA 50% of runs won 50% PIT

✓ The sim had it. The Mammoth won 50% of the runs, and won the real game, UTA by 1.

Wild card · 1 in 11 runs

Mammoth by 4+

Didn’t hit. Real: UTA by 1.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · UTA by 3

Real · UTA by 1

← UTA by 6+ 0 PIT by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Mammoth
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Nick Schmaltz	36%	61%	0	0
Dylan Guenther	35%	56%	0	0
Clayton Keller	28%	68%	0	1
Mikhail Sergachev	28%	69%	1	0
Logan Cooley	20%	57%	3	0
Vincent Trocheck	19%	38%	0	1
MacKenzie Weegar	18%	28%	0	0
Kailer Yamamoto	17%	36%	0	0
Lawson Crouse	13%	28%	0	1
Dmitri Simashev	12%	23%	0	0
Nate Schmidt	9%	21%	0	0
Andrew Peeke	8%	24%	0	1

Penguins
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Rickard Rakell	31%	52%	1	0
Evgeni Malkin	31%	51%	0	2
Sidney Crosby	27%	54%	0	0
Ben Kindel	26%	42%	1	1
Tommy Novak	22%	54%	0	0
Erik Karlsson	22%	75%	1	0
Kris Letang	19%	55%	0	0
Declan Carlile	19%	32%	0	0
Egor Chinakhov	17%	27%	0	1
Kaedan Korczak	9%	41%	0	1
Spencer Stastney	4%	20%	0	0
Ilya Solovyov	3%	3%	–	–

The sim’s call

The Mammoth’s most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. UTA 5, PIT 2. 3.5% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Mammoth
Player	G	A	Shots
Nick Schmaltz	1	2	6
Anders Lee	1	1	3
Clayton Keller	1	1	3
Mikhail Sergachev	1	1	3
Dylan Guenther	1	1	3
Vincent Trocheck	0	1	2
Nate Schmidt	0	1	1
MacKenzie Weegar	0	0	4

Penguins
Player	G	A	Shots
Evgeni Malkin	1	1	2
Sidney Crosby	1	0	4
Tommy Novak	0	1	1
Rickard Rakell	0	0	3
Declan Carlile	0	0	3

Goalies

Mammoth
Player	Shots against	Saves
Karel Vejmelka	26	24

Penguins
Player	Shots against	Saves
Arturs Silovs	30	25

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Karel Vejmelka / Arturs Silovs, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.