NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Canucks @ Sharks

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real
VAN Canucks	2	2
SJ Sharks	5	3

VAN 38% of runs won 62% SJ

✓ The sim had it. The Sharks won 62% of the runs, and won the real game, SJ by 1.

Wild card · 1 in 8 runs

Canucks by 3+

Didn’t hit. Real: SJ by 1.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · SJ by 3

Real · SJ by 1

← VAN by 6+ 0 SJ by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Canucks
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Jonathan Lekkerimaki	28%	52%	0	0
Jake DeBrusk	27%	49%	0	0
Brock Boeser	26%	58%	0	0
Elias Pettersson	24%	64%	0	1
Marco Rossi	21%	32%	0	0
Filip Hronek	15%	56%	0	1
Elias N. Pettersson	14%	20%	0	0
Drew O'Connor	12%	23%	1	0
Zeev Buium	10%	33%	0	0
Jamie Oleksiak	9%	25%	0	0
Filip Chytil	8%	20%	0	0
Tom Willander	7%	25%	0	0

Sharks
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Macklin Celebrini	49%	84%	0	1
Will Smith	41%	67%	2	0
Mason Marchment	27%	37%	1	1
Ivar Stenberg	25%	67%	0	0
Kiefer Sherwood	23%	51%	0	1
Darnell Nurse	19%	28%	0	0
Dmitry Orlov	18%	46%	0	1
Jacob Trouba	17%	58%	0	0
Collin Graf	17%	26%	0	0
Michael Kesselring	12%	30%	0	1
Nolan Allan	10%	11%	0	1
Sam Dickinson	7%	26%	0	0

The sim’s call

The Sharks’ most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. VAN 2, SJ 5. 4.5% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Canucks
Player	G	A	Shots
Brock Boeser	1	0	2
Linus Karlsson	1	0	1
Elias Pettersson	0	1	3
Filip Hronek	0	1	1
Marco Rossi	0	0	4
Filip Chytil	0	0	3

Sharks
Player	G	A	Shots
Macklin Celebrini	1	1	5
Michael Misa	1	1	1
Sam Dickinson	0	2	1
Will Smith	1	0	4
Tyler Toffoli	1	0	3
Mason Marchment	1	0	3
Michael Kesselring	0	1	1
Ivar Stenberg	0	1	1
Darnell Nurse	0	0	5

Goalies

Canucks
Player	Shots against	Saves
Leevi Merilainen	31	26

Sharks
Player	Shots against	Saves
Yaroslav Askarov	25	23

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Leevi Merilainen / Yaroslav Askarov, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.