NBA Wed, Oct 21 Final

Warriors @ Lakers

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
GSW Warriors	110	105
LAL Lakers	115	127

GSW 38% of runs won 62% LAL

✓ The sim had it. The Lakers won 62% of the runs, and won the real game, LAL by 22.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · LAL by 5

Real · LAL by 22

← GSW by 30+ 0 LAL by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 12 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Stephen Curry GSW

25 23

Brandon Williams GSW

15 14

De'Anthony Melton GSW

13 0

10 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Gui Santos GSW

11 12

Yaxel Lendeborg GSW

11 12

Draymond Green GSW

9 2

538 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Al Horford GSW

9 0

198 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Will Richard GSW

8 8

Gary Payton II GSW

8 10

Luka Doncic LAL

27 28

Austin Reaves LAL

22 23

Quentin Grimes LAL

13 10

Sandro Mamukelashvili LAL

11 5

Collin Sexton LAL

10 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Jake LaRavia LAL

9 10

Walker Kessler LAL

9 26

5 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Ziaire Williams LAL

8 9

Matisse Thybulle LAL

6 3

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. GSW 110, LAL 115.

Warriors
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Stephen Curry	22	7	4	7-20	4-16
Draymond Green	7	7	1	1-5	1-4
De'Anthony Melton	12	9	1	4-8	1-4
Gui Santos	10	6	3	3-5	0-1
Brandon Williams	15	6	4	4-11	1-5
Al Horford	7	9	2	3-9	1-4
Will Richard	8	1	3	3-11	2-6
Yaxel Lendeborg	20	3	2	6-9	2-3
Gary Payton II	9	1	2	3-5	2-3

Lakers
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Austin Reaves	24	9	2	8-16	4-9
Luka Doncic	26	9	11	9-22	1-6
Quentin Grimes	8	3	0	2-7	0-3
Jake LaRavia	12	4	3	5-6	2-3
Sandro Mamukelashvili	12	9	0	3-7	1-3
Ziaire Williams	9	2	2	3-6	1-3
Walker Kessler	6	6	3	3-3	0-0
Matisse Thybulle	9	2	0	4-8	1-3
Collin Sexton	9	2	2	3-11	1-3

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this preseason, ESPN.
Out: Butler, Porziņģis, Podziemski, Moody · Carr, Thiero.
Curry is day-to-day; he plays in these runs. Seed 2101.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

Get the sims by email.