NBA Mon, Oct 26 Final

Warriors @ Nuggets

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
GSW Warriors	114	134
DEN Nuggets	127	114

GSW 22% of runs won 78% DEN

✗ A miss. The Nuggets won 78% of the runs, but the Warriors won the real game, GSW by 20. GSW won by that much or more in 2.5% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · DEN by 13

Real · GSW by 20

← GSW by 30+ 0 DEN by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Stephen Curry GSW

22 24

Brandin Podziemski GSW

15 18

Yaxel Lendeborg GSW

14 31

61 of 10,000 runs went that high.

De'Anthony Melton GSW

12 3

318 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Brandon Williams GSW

11 6

Gui Santos GSW

9 13

Georges Niang GSW

9 9

Draymond Green GSW

8 3

Al Horford GSW

7 11

Nikola Jokic DEN

24 19

Jamal Murray DEN

21 19

DeMar DeRozan DEN

16 21

Aaron Gordon DEN

15 7

666 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Christian Braun DEN

12 9

Cameron Johnson DEN

10 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Trevon Brazile DEN

9 6

Marvin Bagley III DEN

7 7

Ryan Nembhard DEN

5 4

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. GSW 114, DEN 127.

Warriors
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Brandin Podziemski	14	6	1	5-11	0-3
Stephen Curry	20	2	3	7-16	3-11
Draymond Green	17	4	3	5-9	4-7
Yaxel Lendeborg	16	7	3	6-13	2-3
De'Anthony Melton	14	4	2	4-6	3-4
Gui Santos	9	4	3	2-5	1-2
Al Horford	5	3	2	2-6	1-4
Georges Niang	4	5	4	2-4	0-2
Brandon Williams	15	3	3	3-7	0-0

Nuggets
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Jamal Murray	22	8	6	9-17	1-3
Nikola Jokic	22	12	5	9-16	0-4
Christian Braun	10	4	1	5-11	0-2
Aaron Gordon	22	8	3	6-11	1-3
DeMar DeRozan	14	1	9	7-13	0-1
Cameron Johnson	11	6	3	4-10	3-7
Trevon Brazile	8	3	2	3-5	1-2
Marvin Bagley III	10	5	0	5-7	0-0
Ryan Nembhard	8	1	2	3-6	2-4

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team; 2024-25 too for anyone with under 20 games) + this season so far, ESPN.
Out: Butler, Porzingis, Moody · Strawther, S. Jones. Santos, Bassey, B. Williams · C. Johnson, Diallo (day-to-day) play.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

Get the sims by email.