million_runs
← The record
NBA Sat, Oct 24 Final

Warriors @ Suns

Simulated 10,000 times

TeamTypicalReal
GSW Warriors 112 122
PHX Suns 110 131

✗ A miss. The Warriors won 53% of the runs, but the Suns won the real game, PHX by 9. PHX won by that much or more in 28% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · GSW by 2
Real · PHX by 9
← GSW by 30+ 0 PHX by 30+ →
Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 16 landed within 3 points of the sim.

050 SimReal
Yaxel Lendeborg GSW
17 26

828 of 10,000 runs went that high.

De'Anthony Melton GSW
15 25

583 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Brandon Williams GSW
15 20
Gui Santos GSW
14 7
Georges Niang GSW
13 4

462 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Draymond Green GSW
11 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Gary Payton II GSW
10 2

296 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Will Richard GSW
8 11
Charles Bassey GSW
7 10
Devin Booker PHX
22 43

24 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Dillon Brooks PHX
17 15
Jalen Green PHX
16 12
Miles Bridges PHX
15 16
Collin Gillespie PHX
11 11
Luke Kennard PHX
8 11
Jordan Goodwin PHX
8 9
Ryan Dunn PHX
6 5
Pat Spencer PHX
6 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. GSW 112, PHX 110.

Warriors
Player PTSREBASTFG3PT
Draymond Green 1012103-71-3
Yaxel Lendeborg 161426-170-4
De'Anthony Melton 17526-143-8
Gui Santos 8243-52-3
Georges Niang 16437-132-7
Brandon Williams 15256-110-1
Will Richard 5812-40-0
Gary Payton II 17136-113-5
Charles Bassey 8914-80-0
Suns
Player PTSREBASTFG3PT
Devin Booker 21643-141-4
Dillon Brooks 19518-210-4
Miles Bridges 171076-152-7
Jalen Green 21328-92-2
Collin Gillespie 3121-61-5
Luke Kennard 16236-83-4
Jordan Goodwin 4122-40-2
Ryan Dunn 4612-60-2
Pat Spencer 5432-30-1

What went in

  • Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team; 2024-25 too for anyone with under 20 games) + this season so far, ESPN.
  • Out: Curry, Butler, Porzingis, Horford, Podziemski, Moody · Ighodaro, M. Williams. Green, Bassey, Kennard (day-to-day) play.
  • 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok