NBA Mon, Oct 26 Final

Timberwolves @ Cavaliers

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real · OT
MIN Timberwolves	120	125
CLE Cavaliers	124	127

MIN 41% of runs won 59% CLE

✓ The sim had it. The Cavaliers won 59% of the runs, and won the real game, CLE by 2.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · CLE by 4

Real · CLE by 2

← MIN by 30+ 0 CLE by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 9 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

050 SimReal

Anthony Edwards MIN

24 47

30 of 10,000 runs went that high.

LaMelo Ball MIN

17 11

Jaden McDaniels MIN

14 14

Ayo Dosunmu MIN

14 9

Jonathan Kuminga MIN

13 10

Rudy Gobert MIN

10 5

Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN

8 14

Cody Williams MIN

6 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Trey Lyles MIN

5 3

Donovan Mitchell CLE

24 26

James Harden CLE

18 19

Evan Mobley CLE

16 18

Jarrett Allen CLE

14 10

Peyton Watson CLE

12 15

Jaylon Tyson CLE

10 11

Sam Merrill CLE

8 9

Mario Hezonja CLE

7 3

Meleek Thomas CLE

7 16

281 of 10,000 runs went that high.

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. MIN 120, CLE 124.

Timberwolves
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Anthony Edwards	18	7	2	7-18	2-7
Jaden McDaniels	15	2	1	7-11	1-1
Rudy Gobert	10	16	3	5-7	0-0
Ayo Dosunmu	16	5	3	6-10	3-4
LaMelo Ball	19	3	10	7-17	4-11
Jonathan Kuminga	19	4	5	7-12	3-5
Terrence Shannon Jr.	5	0	2	2-5	0-1
Trey Lyles	9	5	1	3-5	1-2
Cody Williams	9	2	3	4-5	1-1

Cavaliers
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
James Harden	19	4	9	6-15	1-7
Donovan Mitchell	23	6	3	6-17	3-6
Evan Mobley	16	11	2	6-10	2-3
Peyton Watson	17	3	3	6-13	2-6
Jarrett Allen	14	6	2	7-10	0-0
Jaylon Tyson	13	4	2	4-6	2-2
Sam Merrill	5	2	2	2-6	1-4
Mario Hezonja	9	4	2	3-6	1-2
Meleek Thomas	8	3	1	3-5	1-2

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team; 2024-25 too for anyone with under 20 games) + this season so far, ESPN.
Out: DiVincenzo.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

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