NBA Wed, Oct 21 Final

Timberwolves @ Heat

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
MIN Timberwolves	112	131
MIA Heat	118	106

MIN 35% of runs won 65% MIA

✗ A miss. The Heat won 65% of the runs, but the Timberwolves won the real game, MIN by 25. MIN won by that much or more in 3.5% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · MIA by 6

Real · MIN by 25

← MIN by 30+ 0 MIA by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 9 of 18 landed within 3 points of the sim.

050 SimReal

Anthony Edwards MIN

24 45

58 of 10,000 runs went that high.

LaMelo Ball MIN

17 21

Jaden McDaniels MIN

14 17

Ayo Dosunmu MIN

14 16

Jonathan Kuminga MIN

11 12

Rudy Gobert MIN

10 5

Cody Williams MIN

8 0

121 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Bones Hyland MIN

6 3

Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN

6 10

Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA

24 35

604 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Bam Adebayo MIA

18 15

Andrew Wiggins MIA

14 11

Pelle Larsson MIA

12 2

138 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Bobby Portis MIA

12 7

Tim Hardaway Jr. MIA

11 3

556 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Davion Mitchell MIA

9 11

Klay Thompson MIA

9 10

Nikola Jovic MIA

7 4

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. MIN 112, MIA 118.

Timberwolves
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Anthony Edwards	23	6	1	7-18	3-8
Jaden McDaniels	14	11	3	6-10	2-4
Rudy Gobert	4	6	1	1-4	0-0
LaMelo Ball	19	7	7	8-16	1-4
Ayo Dosunmu	20	2	5	7-11	2-2
Jonathan Kuminga	11	6	2	4-7	1-3
Cody Williams	12	3	2	5-7	1-2
Bones Hyland	7	2	0	3-8	1-5
Terrence Shannon Jr.	2	2	3	1-5	0-2

Heat
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Bam Adebayo	18	10	3	6-13	1-6
Andrew Wiggins	8	5	2	4-13	0-4
Giannis Antetokounmpo	23	9	4	7-14	1-4
Davion Mitchell	10	3	6	3-5	1-2
Pelle Larsson	16	2	6	6-11	2-4
Tim Hardaway Jr.	8	7	2	3-6	2-5
Bobby Portis	15	5	0	7-14	1-5
Klay Thompson	8	4	1	3-9	1-6
Nikola Jovic	12	2	2	4-6	3-3

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this preseason, ESPN.
Out: DiVincenzo. Goldin (day-to-day) isn't in the rotation.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

Get the sims by email.