NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Jets @ Lightning

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real
WPG Jets	2	4
TB Lightning	4	6

WPG 41% of runs won 59% TB

✓ The sim had it. The Lightning won 59% of the runs, and won the real game, TB by 2.

Wild card · 1 in 19 runs

Andrei Vasilevskiy: shutout

Didn’t hit. Real: WPG 4, TB 6.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · TB by 2

Real · TB by 2

← WPG by 6+ 0 TB by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Jets
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Kyle Connor	46%	61%	1	1
Cole Perfetti	34%	54%	0	2
Mark Scheifele	24%	63%	0	3
Gabriel Vilardi	19%	57%	0	0
Neal Pionk	19%	60%	2	0
Dawson Mercer	16%	46%	0	1
Mario Ferraro	12%	14%	0	0
Adam Lowry	10%	35%	0	0
Dylan Samberg	9%	34%	1	1
Dylan DeMelo	7%	26%	0	0
Haydn Fleury	5%	17%	0	0
Elias Salomonsson	3%	3%	0	0

Lightning
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Brandon Hagel	46%	71%	1	2
Jake Guentzel	35%	63%	0	1
Nikita Kucherov	32%	76%	0	1
John Carlson	28%	44%	1	0
Brayden Point	23%	66%	1	0
Anthony Cirelli	18%	35%	1	2
Charle-Edouard D'Astous	17%	47%	0	0
Erik Cernak	11%	29%	0	0
J.J. Moser	9%	11%	0	0
Maxwell Crozier	9%	33%	–	–
Gage Goncalves	8%	19%	0	1
Ryan McDonagh	6%	24%	0	0

The sim’s call

The Lightning’s most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. WPG 2, TB 4. 4.2% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Jets
Player	G	A	Shots
Kyle Connor	1	0	8
Cole Perfetti	1	0	4
Dylan Samberg	0	1	1
Gabriel Vilardi	0	0	3

Lightning
Player	G	A	Shots
Brandon Hagel	1	2	5
Jake Guentzel	1	2	4
Nikita Kucherov	1	0	4
John Carlson	1	0	3
Victor Hedman	0	1	1
Ilya Mikheyev	0	1	0
Dominic James	0	1	0
Brayden Point	0	0	3
Anthony Cirelli	0	0	3

Goalies

Jets
Player	Shots against	Saves
Stuart Skinner	30	26

Lightning
Player	Shots against	Saves
Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	26

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Stuart Skinner / Andrei Vasilevskiy, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.