Wizards @ Cavaliers
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Game shown | Real |
|---|---|---|
| WAS Wizards | 109 | 111 |
| CLE Cavaliers | 120 | 121 |
✓ The sim had it. The Cavaliers won 75% of the runs, and won the real game, CLE by 10.
Every run’s final margin
Game shown · CLE by 11
Real · CLE by 10
← WAS by 30+ 0 CLE by 30+ →
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.
040 SimReal
Trae Young WAS
20 14
Anthony Davis WAS
17 18
Kyshawn George WAS
14 8
Alex Sarr WAS
12 18
Bilal Coulibaly WAS
11 17
Tre Johnson WAS
9 DNP
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Bub Carrington WAS
7 3
Deandre Ayton WAS
7 10
Khris Middleton WAS
7 4
Donovan Mitchell CLE
23 19
James Harden CLE
18 16
Evan Mobley CLE
17 24
Jarrett Allen CLE
14 8
Peyton Watson CLE
12 22
489 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Jaylon Tyson CLE
9 7
Sam Merrill CLE
8 8
Meleek Thomas CLE
7 10
Mario Hezonja CLE
6 5
What a Cavaliers win looks like
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Cavaliers win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. WAS 109, CLE 120. Cavaliers by exactly 11 in 2.6% of runs.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 21 | 4 | 8 | 7-12 | 1-4 |
| Anthony Davis | 17 | 11 | 1 | 7-13 | 0-0 |
| Kyshawn George | 16 | 8 | 5 | 5-8 | 3-5 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4-13 | 1-2 |
| Alex Sarr | 17 | 5 | 3 | 7-14 | 0-2 |
| Tre Johnson | 12 | 1 | 3 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| Bub Carrington | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Deandre Ayton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Khris Middleton | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 21 | 6 | 5 | 8-10 | 4-6 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 24 | 6 | 3 | 9-16 | 0-3 |
| Evan Mobley | 20 | 10 | 2 | 9-18 | 1-5 |
| Peyton Watson | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-4 |
| Jarrett Allen | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Sam Merrill | 11 | 0 | 4 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Mario Hezonja | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Meleek Thomas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1-8 | 1-5 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Champagnie, Vukcevic, Watkins · none.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
Get the sims by email.
Tonight’s games and how the last ones held up, misses included. Unsubscribe anytime.