NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Capitals @ Predators

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real
WSH Capitals	2	4
NSH Predators	4	3

WSH 46% of runs won 54% NSH

✗ A miss. The Predators won 54% of the runs, but the Capitals won the real game, WSH by 1. WSH won by that much or more in 46% of runs.

Wild card · 1 in 22 runs

Juuse Saros: shutout

Didn’t hit. Real: WSH 4, NSH 3.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · NSH by 2

Real · WSH by 1

← WSH by 6+ 0 NSH by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Capitals
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Alex Tuch	36%	47%	1	0
Ryan Leonard	28%	50%	0	0
Jakob Chychrun	26%	61%	0	1
Dylan Strome	25%	65%	0	0
Boone Jenner	22%	29%	1	0
Tom Wilson	22%	41%	0	0
Cole Hutson	21%	41%	2	0
Aliaksei Protas	13%	27%	0	2
Pierre-Luc Dubois	10%	44%	0	1
Timothy Liljegren	6%	8%	0	0
Martin Fehervary	4%	20%	0	1
Matt Roy	3%	11%	0	0

Predators
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Ryan O'Reilly	37%	65%	0	1
Steven Stamkos	35%	70%	0	0
Filip Forsberg	34%	74%	2	0
Roman Josi	29%	75%	0	3
Jonathan Marchessault	24%	45%	0	0
Jack Drury	15%	23%	0	0
Alexander Kerfoot	14%	36%	0	0
Brady Skjei	11%	33%	0	0
Mavrik Bourque	11%	27%	0	0
Adam Wilsby	11%	41%	0	0
Nicolas Hague	8%	17%	0	0
Nick Perbix	5%	6%	0	0

The sim’s call

The Predators’ most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. WSH 2, NSH 4. 3.8% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Capitals
Player	G	A	Shots
Alex Tuch	1	0	2
Cole Hutson	1	0	2
Ilya Protas	0	1	1
Justin Sourdif	0	1	0
Jordan Kyrou	0	0	6
Ryan Leonard	0	0	4
Jakob Chychrun	0	0	3

Predators
Player	G	A	Shots
Ryan O'Reilly	1	1	4
Steven Stamkos	1	0	3
Jonathan Marchessault	1	0	2
Adam Edstrom	1	0	1
Roman Josi	0	1	2
Filip Forsberg	0	1	1
Nicolas Hague	0	1	1
Adam Wilsby	0	1	1
Brady Skjei	0	1	0
Jack Drury	0	0	4
Daemon Hunt	0	0	3

Goalies

Capitals
Player	Shots against	Saves
Logan Thompson	27	23

Predators
Player	Shots against	Saves
Juuse Saros	27	25

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Logan Thompson / Juuse Saros, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.